Retail Media and E-commerce Marketing: Market Size, Measurement and Outlook

Summary

Retail media, the advertising that retailers sell to brands using their own shopper data, is the fastest-moving part of e-commerce marketing. WARC estimates global retail media ad investment at 174.9 billion dollars and forecasts 196.7 billion dollars, about 16% of worldwide ad spending ¹. Other research firms use narrower definitions and report lower figures for the retail media networks market, between about 26 and 31 billion dollars ⁶⁸. The main findings are that retailer-owned networks hold most of the networks market ⁷, that marketers expect a larger role for retail media ³, and that platform concentration is high ⁹. The principal risks are weak performance benchmarks, unstandardized attribution, unreconciled market estimates, and privacy rules that are not covered by the evidence reviewed here. The outlook points to continued growth in most forecasts, with off-site placements expected to expand faster than on-site ³. Stakeholders should plan with ranges, not single figures, and verify performance metrics before committing budgets.

Key findings

1. 1

   Retail media ad investment is estimated at 174.9 billion dollars

   WARC estimates global retail media ad investment at 174.9 billion dollars and forecasts 196.7 billion dollars, about 16% of worldwide ad spending. These are an estimate and a forecast from one research firm, and other firms use different scope.

   Confidence: Medium
2. 2

   Retailer-owned networks hold most of the networks market

   Retailer-owned networks held a 67.45% share of the retail media networks market in the latest period. Third-party aggregators are forecast to grow faster, which could shift share over time.

   Confidence: Medium
3. 3

   Marketers expect retail media to take a bigger share of media mix

   65% of surveyed global marketers said retail media networks would play a bigger part in their media mix over the next 12 months. This measures stated intent in one vendor survey, not actual budget shifts.

   Confidence: Medium
4. 4

   Retail media offers access to first-party data as third-party data declines

   Forrester notes that retail media gives brands rich data for precise targeting as data deprecation persists. This is a qualitative observation rather than a measured outcome.

   Confidence: Qualitative
5. 5

   Marketplace platform concentration is high

   IMARC estimates the top five marketplace platforms capture about 60 to 65% of marketplace-driven retail sales worldwide. This is an estimate with no stated method in the available text.

   Confidence: Medium
6. 6

   Market size estimates for retail media networks diverge

   Grand View Research estimates 30.7 billion dollars for the networks market, while Research and Markets estimates 26.23 billion dollars in the latest period. No reconciliation was retrieved, so readers should treat the range as uncertain.

   Confidence: Medium

1Industry definition and scope

This report covers e-commerce and retail marketing, with a focus on retail media: advertising that retailers sell to brands using their own shopper data. Placements on a retailer's own sites and apps are called on-site. Placements on other properties are called off-site. The report uses global scope throughout, with US figures where the cited source provides them. The reporting period is the latest available data, and forecasts are labelled as forecasts.

E-commerce is defined here using the OECD framework, which has become a global standard for official, internationally comparable statistics on e-commerce transactions ¹⁰. Its latest revision reaffirmed the core principles of the definition ¹⁰. Other sources use broader or narrower scopes. UNCTAD puts total business e-commerce, including B2B, near 27 trillion dollars, roughly four times the retail total ⁴. EMARKETER puts worldwide retail e-commerce sales of retail goods, excluding travel and tickets, at 6.419 trillion dollars ⁴. These figures are not interchangeable.

Terminology matters. Retailer-owned networks are run by the retailer that owns the shopper relationship. Third-party aggregators sell access to inventory across several retailers ⁷. Market size estimates for retail media networks come from research firms with different definitions, so this report presents them separately in the next section.

Definitions follow the cited sources where stated. Where a source does not define a term, the report notes the working definition.

2Market size, structure and value chain

Market size depends on definition. WARC estimates global retail media ad investment at 174.9 billion dollars and projects 196.7 billion dollars, about 16% of all worldwide ad spending ¹. Forrester forecasts global retail media spending at 312 billion dollars at a later forecast horizon ². Grand View Research estimates the retail media networks market at 30.7 billion dollars ⁶, while Research and Markets estimates 26.23 billion dollars in the latest period ⁸. The gap between the two networks estimates is not reconciled in available sources, so these figures should not be read as one market.

Growth is positive in every forecast reviewed. Grand View Research projects the networks market reaching 68.8 billion dollars at a 10.5% compound annual growth rate ⁶. Research and Markets projects 9.5% growth ⁸. These are research firm forecasts and vary by scope. The wider e-commerce base is also relevant. Worldwide e-commerce sales are estimated at 20.5% of retail ⁴, Shopify projects 22.5% ⁵, and US e-commerce reached 1,233.7 billion dollars, or 16.4% of total US retail sales ⁹.

The value chain runs from retailers, who hold shopper purchase data and inventory, to brands and agencies, who buy media. Third-party aggregators and marketplaces sell access across retailers. Research and measurement firms, such as Nielsen, publish market views ³. Revenue models are mainly sponsored placements and display. Display represents less than 30% of on-site retail media spend, according to WARC ¹. The sources do not quantify the split between sponsored search, display and video, and they give no agency fee data, so these elements are described qualitatively.

Concentration is high. IMARC estimates that the top five marketplace platforms capture about 60 to 65% of marketplace-driven retail sales worldwide ⁹. This is an estimate.

• Global retail media ad investment 174.9USD billion Estimate Global, Latest available data [1]
• E-commerce share of worldwide retail sales 20.5percent of retail sales Estimate Global, Latest available data [4]
• E-commerce share of total US retail sales 16.4percent of retail sales Observed United States, Latest available data [9]

Figures are reported as published by each firm without adjustment. Value type labels follow each source.

3Customers, demand and adoption

Brands and agencies are the main buyers. Nielsen reports that 65% of surveyed global marketers said retail media networks would play a bigger part in their media mix over the next 12 months ³. The survey is observed, but it is a single vendor report and measures intent rather than spend. Forrester highlights data access as a draw: retail media gives brands rich data for precise targeting as data deprecation persists ². This is a research firm observation, not a measured outcome.

Demand is linked to channel economics. Nielsen expects off-site media spend to grow two to three times faster than on-site spend for retail media networks over the next couple of years ³. This is a forecast with a loosely defined period. The sources do not give a split of campaign objectives, such as awareness, consideration or sales, so this report cannot rank objectives by spend.

End-user behavior is changing unevenly. Online sales are growing as a share of retail, but growth is not steady. Shopify notes that the latest period was a year of deceleration, due to macroeconomic pressures in China and trade-war stress in North America ⁵. Audience data beyond these points, such as shopper segments or purchase frequency, are not available from the sources reviewed.

Purchasing criteria and barriers are not measured in the sources. No buyer survey covers criteria such as cost per thousand impressions, cost per click, return on ad spend or customer acquisition cost. As an interpretation, buyers probably weigh data precision and measurement credibility, given the emphasis on data access ². Changing expectations on these points are an inference, not a verified finding.

• Marketers expecting a bigger role for retail media networks 65percent of surveyed marketers Observed Global, Latest available data [3]

Survey result reported as stated by the source. It reflects stated intent, not measured budget allocation.

4Competitive landscape and key players

Competition splits between retailer-owned networks and third-party aggregators. Retailer-owned networks held 67.45% of the retail media networks market in the latest period, while third-party aggregators are forecast to grow faster ⁷. This is an observed share from a market research provider. The available text does not give the methodology behind the share.

Walmart is a representative retailer example. A secondary report cites Walmart announcing 4.4 billion dollars in advertising revenue, up 27% year over year, in the latest reported period ⁷. The primary Walmart annual report was not retrieved, so the figure is reported but not independently verified. It may also include advertising outside retail media networks, which the source does not specify.

Amazon is a major platform in most market discussions, but the primary data reviewed do not confirm its advertising revenue or its share of US retail media spend. Figures found only in secondary blogs were excluded from this report.

Business models differ and should be compared with care. Retailer-owned networks sell access to first-party purchase data and inventory within their own environments. Aggregators pool access across retailers. Platform concentration is high, with the top five marketplaces estimated at 60 to 65% of marketplace-driven retail sales ⁹. Research firms, including Nielsen ³, Forrester ², Grand View Research ⁶ and Research and Markets ⁸, act as market commentators rather than sellers of advertising, and their definitions differ.

Comparable company examples were limited. Only one retailer with reported advertising revenue appeared in the sources reviewed, so a fair head-to-head comparison of business models is not possible.

• Retailer-owned share of retail media networks market 67.45percent of market share Observed Global, Latest available data [7]

Company revenue figures are company reported and secondary. Competitive comparisons are limited to the sources available.

5Technology, operations and workforce

Shopper data is the core operating asset. Retail media gives brands access to rich data for precise targeting ². The operational question is how retailers package purchase data for buyers and measure outcomes as third-party data declines. The sources note data deprecation but do not describe the replacement methods retailers use.

The sources do not quantify automation or AI adoption in retail media buying or creative production. Claims about productivity gains would be unsourced, so this report makes none. Creative effectiveness evidence was also not retrieved.

Operationally, retailers run on-site placements and are extending to off-site inventory. Off-site growth implies more partner integrations, which is an interpretation rather than a sourced finding ³. Estimates for connected TV growth exist only in secondary sources and are not verified, so they are not used here.

No verified data on skills, talent supply or salaries were retrieved. As an interpretation, demand may be shifting toward data analysis, retail measurement and partner management. No cited source supports that inference.

Operational and workforce points are drawn from limited sources and are labelled where they are interpretation.

6Regulation, standards, risk and sustainability

Standards: the OECD framework provides official, comparable e-commerce statistics ¹⁰. It is a statistical standard and does not set retail media advertising metrics. No attribution window standard, and no guidance from industry bodies such as IAB or MRC, was retrieved for retail media.

Privacy and consent: the sources note that data deprecation persists ², but they do not identify binding privacy rules for retail media in any jurisdiction. Binding requirements, proposed rules and voluntary guidance cannot be separated on the available evidence. Readers should check the rules set by the regulator in their own jurisdiction. This is not legal advice.

Brand safety and ethics are not covered by the sources reviewed. Brand suitability for placements, and the ethical use of shopper data, remain open questions for this report.

Risks include platform concentration, estimated at 60 to 65% for the top five marketplaces ⁹, and macroeconomic pressure on online sales ⁵. Reliance on secondary data for several key figures is a further risk to confidence. Environmental and social factors were not covered by the sources reviewed. This report is not professional medical, legal, investment or engineering advice.

No jurisdiction-specific retail media rules were retrieved. Regulatory statements are limited to the statistical standard cited.

7Challenges, opportunities and case examples

Measurement is the main constraint. No verified CPM, CPC, ROAS, conversion rate, CAC, brand lift or retention benchmarks for retail media were found. CPM means cost per thousand impressions. CPC means cost per click. ROAS means revenue divided by ad spend. CAC means the cost to acquire one customer. Attribution windows are not standardized in the sources, so return figures from different networks are not comparable.

Forecasts diverge. Estimates for the networks market range from 26.23 billion dollars ⁸ to 30.7 billion dollars ⁶ across research firms. Macroeconomic pressures slowed e-commerce in some regions ⁵, which limits how far forecasts can be relied on.

Opportunities lie in forecast growth for retail media ¹², in off-site expansion ³ and in first-party data access ². These are forecasts or observations, not guaranteed results.

Case examples are limited. Walmart shows that a large retailer can report advertising revenue at scale, as reported by a secondary source ⁷. Nielsen's marketer survey shows demand for retail media in the mix ³. Shopify's statistics describe online share trends rather than retail media activity ⁵, so they provide market context rather than a retail media case.

Examples are drawn from named companies and providers in the sources reviewed. Comparable examples were limited.

8Outlook and strategic implications

Base case: retail media continues to grow faster than total online retail in most forecasts ¹²⁶⁸. Growth rates vary widely by definition, so planning should use a range rather than one number. Networks market growth is estimated at 9.5% to 10.5% a year ⁶⁸.

Downside case: macroeconomic pressure slows online sales ⁵, and measurement gaps could limit shifts in brand budgets. Nielsen's survey shows intent rather than spend ³, so the size of any budget shift remains uncertain.

Implications, as interpretation: brands should set explicit attribution windows and test incrementality, because benchmarks are missing. Retailers should treat first-party data governance as a core asset, since it is the basis of the offer ². Agencies should expect more direct buying from networks, but the sources give no evidence on changing agency-client relationships. Measurement partners can address the standards gap. Regulators could reduce uncertainty by setting clear rules for shopper data use.

Scenarios are qualitative and based on cited forecasts. Implications are interpretation, not sourced findings.

9Conclusion

Retail media is a large and growing part of e-commerce marketing, with estimates ranging from about 26 billion to 175 billion dollars depending on definition ¹⁸. The most defensible takeaways are that retailer-owned networks dominate ⁷, marketer intent is rising ³, and performance evidence remains thin. Stakeholders should plan with ranges and verify metrics before committing budgets.

How this was built

Sources

1. 1

   Future of Commerce Media (WARC) as reported by Inside Radio

   World Advertising Research Center (WARC) Market research

   insideradio.com
2. 2

   Global Retail Media Spend To Top $300 Billion

   Forrester Market research

3. 3

   The future of retail media

   Nielsen Company report

4. 4

   Ecommerce Statistics (citing EMARKETER Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Forecast)

   Market Intelligence Tools (citing EMARKETER) Vendor report

   marketintelligencetools.com
5. 5

   Global Ecommerce Statistics and Trends

   Shopify Company report

   shopify.com
6. 6

   Retail Media Networks Market Size & Share Report

   Grand View Research Market research

   grandviewresearch.com
7. 7

   Retail Media Networks Market Analysis (Mordor Intelligence)

   Mordor Intelligence Market research

   mordorintelligence.com
8. 8

   Retail Media Networks Market: Market Outlook

   Research and Markets Market research

   researchandmarkets.com
9. 9

   Ecommerce Market Size, Share, Trends & Forecast

   IMARC Group Market research

   imarcgroup.com
10. 10

    OECD Definition of E-commerce and Guidelines for Interpretation

    OECD (hosted by UNCTAD) Standard