Traditional and Broadcast Advertising: Industry Report

Summary

Traditional and broadcast advertising is a shrinking share of a growing global ad market. Forecasts put total global ad spend at about 1.34 trillion US dollars, with growth led by social media and streaming ¹. Linear TV is losing share: one WARC analysis observed a 27.5 percent fall in linear TV ad spend worldwide over a multi-year window, and its share of cross-channel spend dropped 27 percentage points ³. Video advertising overall is forecast at 35.7 percent of all ad spend ⁷. Viewing has moved to streaming, which captured 49.6 percent of US TV viewing time in August ¹⁰. The main risks are forecast variance, inconsistent definitions across sources, and platform concentration. Pack data gaps are large: production budgets, production cycles, employment, creator earnings, rights and royalties, and generative AI adoption in TV commercial production are not verified. The outlook is continued migration of TV and audio budgets toward streaming, connected TV and audio online, with linear TV declining in share.

Key findings

1. 1

   Linear TV is losing share of global ad spend

   WARC Media observed a 27.5 percent decline in worldwide linear TV ad spend over a multi-year window, with its share of total cross-channel spend down 27 percentage points. Other forecasts show linear TV falling further in the coming period.

   Confidence: High
2. 2

   Streaming now holds about half of US TV viewing time

   Nielsen reported streaming at 49.6 percent of total US TV viewing time in August, up from 47.5 percent in its December record. Nielsen measures viewing time, not ad spend, so this is an audience indicator only.

   Confidence: High
3. 3

   Global ad growth is forecast to concentrate in digital channels

   WARC forecasts global spend at 1.34 trillion US dollars with social media growing 21.3 percent to 394.6 billion. Social, search and retail media together are forecast at 66.4 percent of global ad spend.

   Confidence: Medium
4. 4

   Forecasts disagree on the size of linear TV advertising

   Forecasts for the same channel range from 123.5 billion to 139.1 billion US dollars, and definitions of total market size differ. Readers should compare forecasts only with their stated definitions.

   Confidence: Medium
5. 5

   Production-side evidence is largely unavailable

   The pack holds no verified data on production budgets, production cycle length, freelance or studio employment, creator earnings, or generative AI use in TV commercial production. Conclusions on production economics are therefore qualitative.

   Confidence: Qualitative

11. Industry definition and scope

This report covers paid advertising placed on linear television, radio, print and the broadcast-style video and audio that now runs on streaming, connected TV (CTV) and video-on-demand (VOD) services. Source groupings differ. One report describes radio, newspapers and magazines as traditional channels ², while others separate linear TV from streaming video ³⁶. This report follows those source definitions and flags where they conflict.

The geographic scope is global. US and UK national figures are used only where the source is national: US viewing and CTV data from Nielsen and IAB ⁸⁹¹⁰, and UK TV spend from the same industry source ⁸. Reporting period is the latest available data. Most market figures are forecasts from late-period releases, and audience figures are observed measurements. The two are not interchangeable.

Terminology matters. Linear TV means scheduled broadcast or cable programming. CTV means television sets connected to the internet. VOD and streaming cover subscription and ad-supported on-demand services. Sources do not always state which of these a figure includes, so each figure is reported with its stated scope.

Scope is set by the pack. Definitions are reported as given by each source, not harmonized.

22. Market size, structure and value chain

WARC Media forecasts global ad spend growing 11.9 percent to 1.34 trillion US dollars, after 10 percent growth in each of the two prior periods ¹. WPP Media uses a narrower base, excluding political advertising, and projects total global ad revenue rising 8.8 percent to 1.14 trillion US dollars ⁶. The gap between the two totals reflects scope, not a conflict in growth direction. WARC expects overall growth to slow to 8.4 percent ².

Video is the largest format segment in the forecasts. WARC forecasts global video advertising spend at 479.1 billion US dollars, or 35.7 percent of all ad spend ⁷. Within video, VOD and streaming platforms are forecast to rise 15.1 percent to 48.4 billion US dollars ¹. Traditional channels are forecast to keep losing ground ².

The value chain runs from advertiser objectives and creative concept, through production, media planning and buying, placement on channels, distribution and audience measurement, to monetisation by media owners. Revenue flows from advertisers to broadcasters, radio groups, publishers and platforms. Pack sources describe market value, not the internal cost structure of production. The table below shows why linear TV forecasts should be read with care.

• Forecast global ad spend 1.34trillion US dollars Forecast Global, Latest forecast period [1]
• Forecast video share of all ad spend 35.7percent Forecast Global, Latest forecast period [7]

Totals are cited as forecasts. The table lists three forecasts side by side and keeps each source's definition visible.

33. Customers, demand and adoption

Advertisers are the paying customers. They allocate budgets across channels by audience reach, measurable outcomes and price. The pack shows budgets moving toward digital channels. Social media is forecast to grow 21.3 percent to 394.6 billion US dollars, the fastest among major channels ¹. Social, search and retail media together are forecast at 66.4 percent of global ad spend ².

Audience demand has moved in the same direction. Streaming captured 47.5 percent of US TV viewing in December, the largest share Nielsen had reported ⁹. By August the streaming share reached 49.6 percent ¹⁰. YouTube alone held 12.5 percent of US TV viewing in May ⁹ and 15.8 percent in August ¹⁰.

Demand drivers cited in the pack include corporate AI investment and major events such as the Olympics, FIFA World Cup and US mid-term elections ⁴. These are cited as drivers of growth, not measured effects. Barriers are described qualitatively: linear TV faces entry into the ad market by Big Tech, retail media and smart TV makers, which further fragments the market ³.

The pack holds no verified data on buyer purchasing criteria for TV or radio advertising, on campaign budget sizes, or on audience reach for broadcast advertising outside US Nielsen data. The writer's interpretation is that advertisers increasingly compare linear and streaming buys on reach and measurable outcomes, but this is not evidenced in the pack.

• Streaming share of US TV viewing time 49.6percent Observed United States, August (latest available data) [10]
• Forecast social media ad spend growth 21.3percent Forecast Global, Latest forecast period [1]

Demand is evidenced by viewing and spend data. Purchasing criteria are not evidenced in the pack.

44. Competitive landscape and key players

Competition now spans broadcasters, streaming services, social platforms, search and retail media owners, Big Tech and smart TV manufacturers ³. Among US TV platforms, YouTube led streaming with 15.8 percent of total TV viewing time in August, ahead of Netflix at 7.7 percent ¹⁰. Shares of viewing time are not shares of ad revenue, so these figures show audience position, not advertising revenue ranking.

Concentration is visible in the forecasts. Social, search and retail media together are forecast at 66.4 percent of global ad spend ². Linear broadcasters face a more fragmented market as new entrants bid for TV ad dollars ³. The pack does not provide revenue market shares for individual broadcasters or platforms.

Netflix has signalled an advertising business, but the pack contains only a company target that a secondary source reported, not a reported result, and a primary filing was not retrieved . The business models are different: Nielsen and similar measurers sell audience data, forecasters such as WARC, WPP Media and IAB publish market estimates, and media owners sell inventory. Forecasters use different methods and scopes, so their competitive views should be compared with care.

Only three comparable August figures are available from one source, so the chart is limited to that source.

55. Technology, operations and workforce

The main technology shift in the pack is from scheduled broadcast to addressable, data-targeted TV. WARC Media forecasts global CTV advertising at 44.7 billion US dollars ⁵. In the US, IAB's outlook forecasts connected TV ad spend growing 15.6 percent while linear TV falls 1.5 percent ⁸. One source describes an operator approach to targeted TV advertising during the same live event, which shows how a single broadcast can carry different ads to different viewers ⁵.

Operations are changing as measurement becomes central. Nielsen's Gauge measures total TV viewing, not ad-supported audiences or currency ratings, and the pack found no verified share of TV ad inventory by platform ⁹¹⁰. Buyers therefore depend on several measurement sources that do not fully align.

The pack contains no verified data on production productivity, production cycle length, tool adoption, employment, freelance versus studio models, or the skills required. It also lacks verified data on generative AI adoption in TV commercial production. Corporate AI investment is cited as a growth driver for advertising overall ⁴, but that is not evidence of use in production. The writer's interpretation is that skills are shifting toward data analysis, addressable campaign management and measurement, but this is not verified in the pack.

• Forecast global CTV advertising 44.7billion US dollars Forecast Global, Latest forecast period [5]
• Forecast US connected TV ad spend growth 15.6percent Forecast United States, Latest forecast period [8]

Technology evidence is limited to forecasts and measurement descriptions. Operational and workforce data are unavailable.

66. Regulation, standards, risk and sustainability

The pack contains no verified regulatory, standards or legal material for traditional and broadcast advertising. Accessibility standards and audio description requirements were not searched and remain unverified . No jurisdiction's binding rules, proposed rules or voluntary guidance are reported here, so this section does not state any legal position. Readers in regulated markets should consult the relevant regulator and qualified counsel.

Privacy, consumer protection and advertising-content rules also fall outside the pack. CTV and addressable TV rely on audience data, so data governance is a plausible risk for buyers and sellers, but the pack does not evidence specific obligations. Environmental and social impacts of production, including travel and set activity, are not covered by any source in the pack.

Operational risks visible in the pack are mainly commercial. Forecasts vary between sources and are revised ¹⁶. Linear TV is in decline ³⁷. Platform dependency is significant: a large share of viewing sits with a small number of streaming services ¹⁰. The writer's interpretation is that producers and broadcasters with heavy exposure to one platform face concentration risk, but the pack gives no contract or revenue data to test this.

Regulatory and sustainability claims are omitted where the pack holds no evidence. This is not legal or professional advice.

77. Challenges, opportunities and case examples

The main challenge is the loss of linear share. WARC observed a 27.5 percent fall in worldwide linear TV ad spend over a multi-year window ³. IAB forecasts US linear TV ad spend falling 1.5 percent ⁷. UK TV advertising spend was 5,216.1 million GBP in the latest observed period, and is forecast to grow 3.7 percent ⁸. UK growth therefore contrasts with the US and global linear trend, though TV there is not split between linear and streaming in the pack.

Opportunities lie in addressable and connected TV. WARC forecasts global CTV advertising at 44.7 billion US dollars ⁵, and IAB forecasts US CTV growth of 15.6 percent ⁸. Live events are cited as a driver of advertising in the forecast period ⁴. Audio is also forecast to grow, led by online listening, according to a WARC-based report ⁴.

Case example one: Nielsen reports streaming's share of US TV viewing, a measurement service that shapes how buyers judge audiences ⁹¹⁰. Case example two: YouTube and Netflix, which hold 15.8 and 7.7 percent of US TV viewing time respectively ¹⁰, show two different models, a user-generated platform and a subscription service that is building advertising. Case example three: a broadcaster playbook for targeted ads during a single live match ⁵. The pack supports this example only from the headline and summary, so no performance results are claimed. Comparable market data for production firms, freelancers and creators was not found, so no comparison across independent and larger production firms is made.

• Global linear TV share decline 27percentage points Observed Global, Multi-year window (latest available data) [3]

Examples are limited to companies and services named in the pack. Only three are used.

88. Outlook and strategic implications

The most likely near-term path, based on the forecasts in the pack, is continued growth in digital and streaming spend with linear TV declining in share ¹²⁶. Growth overall is forecast to slow to 8.4 percent ². Forecasts differ on the size of linear TV decline, so the direction is more reliable than the magnitude. This is the writer's interpretation of the consistent direction across sources.

Uncertainties include the pace of CTV adoption, the outcome of new entrants into TV ad markets ³, and the scale of AI-related investment ⁴. A downside scenario is faster linear decline or weaker streaming monetisation. An upside scenario is that addressable TV and live events keep linear budgets stable in parts of the market. Neither scenario is quantified in the pack.

Practical implications for stakeholders: producers should track how advertisers allocate across streaming and linear, and document skills needed for addressable and data-led work. Broadcasters should plan for share loss and test addressable inventory. Advertisers should compare forecasts on a common definition and use measurement that covers both linear and streaming. Measurement bodies should clarify how viewing shares relate to ad audiences. These are the writer's implications, not findings from the pack.

Outlook relies on forecasts, which are flagged as estimates. No quantified scenario is supported by the pack.

99. Conclusion

Traditional and broadcast advertising is contracting in share as budgets and viewing move to streaming, CTV and social platforms. The most defensible takeaways are that linear TV is losing share, streaming holds about half of US TV viewing time, and digital channels take most forecast growth. Production economics, labor and rights remain unverified and need primary research.

Conclusion draws only on the sources and gaps listed in this report.

How this was built

Sources

1. 1

   WARC: Global ad spending forecast to hit $1.34 trillion, fueled by social, streaming buys

   The Desk (reporting WARC Media forecast) News report

2. 2

   WARC forecasts social media ad spend gains 21.3% to $394.6bn in the latest period

   PPC Land (reporting WARC Media Global Ad Spend Forecast) News report

3. 3

   Global Ad Trends: The changing shape of TV

   WARC Media Market research

   warc.com
4. 4

   Global Ad Boom Forecasted to Lift Audio, Led By Online Listening

   Radio Ink (reporting WARC Media Global Ad Spend Forecast) News report

5. 5

   Indian Television: Same match, different ads: the operator's playbook for targeted TV advertising

   Indian Television Dot Com (citing WARC Media) News report

   indiantelevision.com
6. 6

   Total global ad revenue grew to $1.14 trillion in the latest period: WPP Media

   Marketing Brew (reporting WPP Media forecast) News report

7. 7

   Digital Advertising Statistics: Spend and Revenue Data

   Digital Applied (compiling WARC Media and IAB data) Vendor report

8. 8

   TV Advertising Statistics: IAB, Thinkbox and Nielsen Data

   StatisticsGlobal (citing IAB and Advertising Association/WARC) News report

   statisticsglobal.org
9. 9

   Streaming Shatters Multiple Records in December with 47.5% of TV Viewing, according to Nielsen's The Gauge

   Nielsen Company report

10. 10

    Archynewsy: YouTube Dominates US Streaming Market to Lead Netflix (citing Nielsen latest August data)

    Archynewsy (citing Nielsen) News report

    archynewsy.com