Hurricane forecasts have improved dramatically, saving lives, but federal cuts threaten to stretch NOAA resources to breaking point

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1, and while early outlooks suggest that a developing El Niño might result in a tamer season than in the past few years, with below-average hurricane activity, all it takes is one big storm hitting a populated area to make it a bad hurricane season. Every year, Americans rely on accurate forecasts when hurricanes might be developing to know when to stock up on supplies, prepare for power outages or evacuate. Those forecasts have improved dramatically in recent decades, but the improvements can’t be taken for granted. Over the past year, federal funding cuts and job losses in the very programs that are helping make Americans safer from extreme weather threaten to stall progress and stretch forecasting resources to the breaking point. I am an atmospheric scientist whose research focuses on hurricanes, including how and why they intensify or weaken. I also work with scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, to analyze observations collected by reconnaissance aircraft and evaluate computer model forecasts of hurricanes. Here’s what forecasters rely on during hurricane season and why investing in science, forecasting technologies and the people who run them matters. Flying through hurricanes To…

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